Measuring the accuracy of earned value/earned schedule forecasting predictors
Vanhoucke, Mario Vandevoorde, Stephan
Vanhoucke, Mario
Vandevoorde, Stephan
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Publication Type
Magazine article
Editor
Supervisor
Publication Year
2007
Journal
The Measurable News
Book
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Winter
Publication Begin page
26
Publication End page
30
Publication Number of pages
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Abstract
Earned value systems have been setup to deal with the complex task of controlling and adjusting the baseline project schedule during execution, taking into account project scope, timed delivery, and total project budget. Although earned value systems have been proven to provide reliable estimates for the follow-up of cost performance within certain project assumptions, it often fails to predict the total du- ration of the project. In this article, we give a brief overview and summary of a simulation study that investigates the potential of three earned-value-based methods to forecast the final project duration. The study assumes a project setting where project activities and precedence relations are known in advance and does not consider fundamentally unforeseeable events and/or unknown interactions among various actions that might cause entirely unexpected effects in different project parts. This paper is the first in a sequence that summarizes the results of the large simulation study initiated by Vanhoucke and Vande- voorde (2007). Each paper will discuss and highlight an aspect of the simulation study.
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Keywords
Programme & Portfolio Management