Individual differences in the susceptibility to forecasting biases
De Baets, Shari Vanderheyden, Karlien
De Baets, Shari
Vanderheyden, Karlien
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Publication Type
Journal article with impact factor
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Supervisor
Publication Year
2021
Journal
Applied Cognitive Psychology
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Publication Volume
35
Publication Issue
4
Publication Begin page
1106
Publication End page
1114
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Abstract
We set out to investigate whether interindividual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (a) optimism bias, (b) adding noise to forecasts, (c) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent, and (d) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relationships with cognition (cognitive style, cognitive reflection). Our sample included both novice and expert forecasters. They did not differ significantly in their susceptibility to biases. The lack of individual differences in bias susceptibility suggests that universal approaches to debiasing are possible.
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Keywords
Biases, Cognitive Styles, Forecasting, Individual Differences, Judgment