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Evaluation of deterministic state-of-the-art forecasting approaches for project duration based on earned value management
Batselier, Jordy Vanhoucke, Mario
Batselier, Jordy
Vanhoucke, Mario
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Publication Type
Journal article with impact factor
Editor
Supervisor
Publication Year
2015
Journal
International Journal of Project Management
Book
Publication Volume
33
Publication Issue
7
Publication Begin page
1588
Publication End page
1596
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Abstract
In recent years, a variety of novel approaches for fulfilling the important management task of accurately forecasting project duration have been proposed, with many of them based on the earned value management (EVM) methodology. However, these state-of-the-art approaches have often not been adequately tested on a large database, nor has their validity been empirically proven. Therefore, we evaluate the accuracy and timeliness of three promising deterministic techniques and their mutual combinations on a real-life project database. More specifically, two techniques respectively integrate rework and activity sensitivity in EVM time forecasting as extensions, while a third innovatively calculates schedule performance from time-based metrics and is appropriately called earned duration management or EDM(t). The results indicate that all three of the considered techniques are relevant. More concretely, the two EVM extensions exhibit accuracy-enhancing power for different applications, while EDM(t) performs very similar to the best EVM methods and shows potential to improve them.
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Keywords
Project Management, Time Forecasting, Earned Value Management, Earned Duration Management, Rework, Sensitivity Measures, Empirical Database, Project Control