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Computing project makespan distributions: Markovian PERT networks revisited
Burgelman, Jeroen Vanhoucke, Mario
Burgelman, Jeroen
Vanhoucke, Mario
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Publication Type
Journal article with impact factor
Editor
Supervisor
Publication Year
2019
Journal
Computers and Operations Research
Book
Publication Volume
103
Publication Issue
March
Publication Begin page
123
Publication End page
133
Publication Number of pages
Collections
Abstract
This paper analyses the project completion time distribution in a Markovian PERT network. Several techniques to obtain exact or numerical expressions for the project completion time distribution are evaluated, with the underlying assumption that the activity durations are exponentially distributed random variables. We show that some of the methods advocated in the project scheduling literature are unable to solve standard datasets from the literature. We propose a framework to analyse the applicability, accuracy and sensitivity of different methods to compute project makespan distributions. An alternative data generation process is proposed to benchmark the different methods and the influence of project dataset parameters on the obtained results is extensively assessed.
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Keywords
Project Scheduling, PERT Networks, Markov Chains, Linear Algebra