Forecasting a project's duration under various topological structures
Vanhoucke, Mario Vandevoorde, Stephan
Vanhoucke, Mario
Vandevoorde, Stephan
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Publication Type
Journal article
Editor
Supervisor
Publication Year
2009
Journal
The Measurable News
Book
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
1
Publication Begin page
26
Publication End page
30
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Abstract
In this third paper about the simulation study to measure the accuracy of three earned value based forecasting techniques to predict the final project duration, we elaborate on the influence of the degree of project criticality on the quality of project duration predictions. Based on simulation results of Vanhoucke and Vandevoorde (2007b) and the network paper of Vanhoucke et al. (2008), we present an indicator to measure the structure of a project network, defined by the distribution of activities and the amount of precedence relations and show that this measure clearly influences the accuracy of duration forecast- ing. Rather than drawing results on a small set of real-life projects, we present simulation results for a large and diverse set of different project networks to be able to draw general results that hold for a wide variety of projects in practice.
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Keywords
Programme & Portfolio Management