Publication

Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management

Barrientos-Orellana, Alexis
Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo
Mora-Melia, Daniel
Gonzalez-Cruz, Maria Carmen
Vanhoucke, Mario
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Publication Type
Journal article with impact factor
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Supervisor
Publication Year
2022
Journal
Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management
Book
Publication Volume
29
Publication Issue
3
Publication Begin page
1449
Publication End page
1469
Publication Number of pages
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Abstract
Earned Value Management (EVM) is a project monitoring and control technique that enables the forecasting of a project’s duration. Many EVM metrics and project duration forecasting methods have been proposed. However, very few studies have compared their accuracy and stability. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents an exhaustive stability and accuracy analysis of deterministic EVM project duration forecasting methods. Stability is measured via Pearson’s, Spearman’s and Kendall’s correlation coefficients while accuracy is measured by Mean Squared and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors. These parameters are determined at ten percentile intervals to track a given project’s progress across 4,100 artificial project networks with varied topologies. Findings – Findings support that stability and accuracy are inversely correlated for most forecasting methods, and also suggest that both significantly worsen as project networks become increasingly parallel. However, the AT þ PD-ESmin forecasting method stands out as being the most accurate and reliable. Practical implications – Implications of this study will allow construction project managers to resort to the simplest, most accurate and most stable EVM metrics when forecasting project duration. They will also be able to anticipate how the project topology (i.e., the network of activity predecessors) and the stage of project progress can condition their accuracy and stability. Originality/value – Unlike previous research comparing EVM forecasting methods, this one includes all deterministic methods (classical and recent alike) and measures their performance in accordance with project duration.
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Keywords
Earned Value Management, Construction Projects, Project Duration, Metrics Stability, Time Estimates Accuracy
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