Kerkhove, Louis-Philippe; Vanhoucke, Mario (European Journal of Operational Research, 2017)
We present a novel optimisation approach for incentive contract design within a project setting. the structure of the remuneration is one of the key challenges faced by the project owner when (s)he decides to hire a contractor. The proposed technique builds on the recently proposed contract design methodology by Kerkhove and Vanhoucke (Omega, 2015). Specifically, a novel multi-objective scatter search heuristic is proposed and implemented using parallelisation. Both single- and multi-population implementations of this heuristic are compared to the original full-factorial approach as well as commercial optimisation software. The results of the computational experiments indicate that the single-population parallel scatter search procedure significantly outperforms the other solution strategies in terms of both speed and solution quality.
Martens, Annelies; Vanhoucke, Mario (Computers & Industrial Engineering, 2017)
The timely completion of a project is one of its main factors for success. During the scheduling phase, a project buffer can be installed to protect the project deadline. During the execution phase, tolerance limits that generate warning signals when the project deadline is endangered should be constructed to monitor the buffer consumption. These tolerance limits will be constructed for the dynamic progress data provided by the Earned Value Management/Earned schedule methodology (EVM/ES). In this paper, we incorporate information on the availability of scarce resources into the construction of analytical tolerance limits for EVM/ES, in order to improve the efficiency and reliability of these tolerance limits. In order to review the performance of the limits, a computational experiment has been carried out in which they are compared to analytical tolerance limits that disregard the availability of resources. Results have shown that the performance of analytical tolerance limits can be significantly enhanced by incorporating the available resource information.
Kerkhove, Louis-Philippe; Vanhoucke, Mario (International Journal of Project Management, 2017)
This research introduces novel control metrics for projects that use cost and/or time incentives. The proposed technique extends the traditional earned value management (EV M) methodology for project control. This is done by measuring the deviation in the accrual of incentives, rather than the time and cost performance relative to the planned schedule. The proposed dedicated approach avoids two key issues when controlling incentivized projects using traditional earned value management. Firstly, the impact of variations in the cost and time dimensions are adequately weighted in the control signals. Secondly, the technique is capable of monitoring the potential non-linear accrual of incentive amounts throughout the project. The performance of the proposed technique is tested by means of a computational experiment on 4200 projects of varying size, structure and type of incentive contract. The results show that the proposed technique improves signal quality when compared to traditional EV M metrics.
Wauters, Mathieu; Vanhoucke, Mario (European Journal of Operational Research, 2017)
In this paper, we provide a Nearest Neighbour based extension for project control forecasting with Earned Value Management. The k-Nearest Neighbour method is employed as a predictor and to reduce the size of a training set containing more similar observations. An Artificial Intelligence (AI) method then makes use of the reduced training set to predict the real duration of a project. Additionally, we report on the forecasting stability of the various AI methods and their hybrid Nearest Neighbour counterparts. A large computer experiment is set up to assess the forecasting accuracy and stability of the existing and newly proposed methods. The experiments indicate that the Nearest Neighbour technique yields the best stability results and is able to improve the AI methods when the training set is similar or not equal to the test set. Sensitivity checks vary the amount of historical data and number of neighbours, leading to the conclusion that having more historical data, from which the a relevant subset can be selected by means of the proposed Nearest Neighbour technique, is preferential.
Batselier, Jordy; Vanhoucke, Mario (Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2017)
The ability to accurately characterize projects is essential to good project management. Therefore, a novel project characteristic is developed that reflects the value accrue within a project. This characteristic, called project regularity, is expressed in terms of the newly introduced regular/irregular-indicator RI. The widely accepted management system of earned value management (EVM) forms the basis for evaluation of the new characteristic. More concretely, the influence of project regularity on EVM forecasting accuracy is assessed, and is shown to be significant for both time and cost forecasting. Moreover, this effect appears to be stronger than that of the widely used characteristic of project seriality expressed by the serial/parallel-indicator SP. Therefore, project regularity could also be useful as an input parameter for project network generators. Furthermore, the introduction of project regularity can provide project managers with a more accurate indication of the time and cost forecasting accuracy that is to be expected for a certain project and, correspondingly, of how a project should be built up in order to obtain more reliable forecasts during project control.
Batselier, Jordy; Vanhoucke, Mario (International Journal of Project Management, 2017)
In this paper, the earned value management (EVM) project control methodology is integrated with the exponential smoothing forecasting approach. This results in an extension of the known EVM and earned schedule (ES) cost and time forecasting formulas. A clear correspondence between the established approaches and the newly introduced method - called the XSM - is identified, which could facilitate future implementation. More specifically, only one smoothing parameter is needed to calculate the enhanced EVM performance factor. Moreover, this parameter can be dynamically adjusted during project progress based on information of past performance and/or anticipated management actions. Additionally, the reference class forecasting (RCF) technique can be incorporated into the XSM. Results from 23 real-life projects show that, for both time and cost forecasting, the XSM exhibits a considerable overall performance improvement with respect to the most accurate project forecasting methods identified by previous research, especially when incorporating the RCF concept.
Martens, Annelies; Vanhoucke, Mario (European Journal of Operational Research, 2017)
Timely completion of projects is an important factor for project success. However, projects often exceed their predefined deadline, which results in a late project delivery and an increase in the total project cost. In order to increase the probability of timely completion, a project buffer can be planned at the end of a project. During project execution, an assessment of the total buffer consumption at the project completion date can be made in order to periodically monitor the project progress. When the expected buffer consumption is higher than 100%, the project deadline is expected to be exceeded and the project manager should take corrective actions to get the project back on track. In this paper, a new buffer monitoring approach is introduced, which sets tolerance limits for Earned Value Management/Earned Schedule (EVM/ES) schedule performance metrics by allocating the project buffer over the different project phases. The purpose of these tolerance limits is to provide the project manager with accurate and reliable information on the expected project outcome during the project execution. A computational study is carried out to assess the performance of the proposed approach and to compare its performance with traditional buffer consumption monitoring procedures. Additionally, existing performance metrics for tolerance limits have been put into a hypothesis testing framework, and new metrics have been developed in order to fill the detected gaps in performance measurement. Results have shown that the proposed tolerance limits improve the performance of the monitoring phase, especially for parallel projects. Consequently, the underperformance of EVM/ES for parallel projects is mitigated by these limits.
Digitalization, mergers & acquisitions, international expansion, business model redesign, new product launch, cultural transformation.
All these strategic initiatives are common projects undertaken to stay alive in the current unpredictable markets. Today, to be successful, organizations require leaders with strong project management competencies. Yet, according to our research, only 4% of the Top 200 Business Schools in the world offer project management as part of their MBA core curriculums.
Export search results
The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different
formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.
By default, clicking on the export buttons will result in a download of the allowed maximum amount of items.
To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export.
The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.
After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.