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    Improving customer acquisition models by incorporating spatial autocorrelation at different levels of granularity

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    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    Baecke, Philippe
    Van den Poel, Dirk
    Publication Year
    2013
    Journal
    Journal of Intelligent Information Systems
    Publication Volume
    41
    Publication Issue
    1
    Publication Begin page
    73
    Publication End page
    90
    
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    Abstract
    Traditional CRM models often ignore the correlation that could exist among the purchasing behavior of surrounding prospects. Hence, a generalized linear autologistic regression model can be used to capture this interdependence and improve the predictive performance of the model. In particular, customer acquisition models can benefit from this. These models often suffer from a lack of data quality due to the limited amount of information available about potential new customers. Based on a customer acquisition model of a Japanese automobile brand, this study shows that the extra value resulting from incorporating neighborhood effects can vary significantly depending on the granularity level on which the neighborhoods are composed. A model based on a granularity level that is too coarse or too fine will incorporate too much or too little interdependence resulting in a less than optimal predictive improvement. Since neighborhood effects can have several sources (i.e. social influence, homophily and exogeneous shocks), this study suggests that the autocorrelation can be divided into several parts, each optimally measured at a different level of granularity. Therefore, a model is introduced that simultaneously incorporates multiple levels of granularity resulting in even more accurate predictions. Further, the effect of the sample size is examined. This shows that including spatial interdependence using finer levels of granularity is only useful when enough data is available to construct stable spatial lag effects. As a result, extending a spatial model with multiple granularity levels becomes increasingly valuable when the data sample becomes larger.
    Keyword
    Customer Relationship Management (CRM), Predictive Analytics, Customer Intelligence, Marketing, Data Augmentation, Autoregressive Model, Automobile Industry
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Marketing & Sales
    DOI
    10.1007/s10844-012-0225-4
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/4517
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1007/s10844-012-0225-4
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