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    A study of the stability of earned value management forecasting

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    Publication type
    Journal article
    Author
    Wauters, Mathieu
    Vanhoucke, Mario
    Publication Year
    2015
    Journal
    Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    Publication Volume
    141
    Publication Issue
    4
    Publication Begin page
    1
    Publication End page
    10
    
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    Abstract
    In this paper, the authors focus on the stability of earned value management (EVM) forecasting methods. The contribution is threefold. First of all, a new criterion to measure stability that does not suffer from the disadvantages of the historically employed concept is proposed. Second, the stability of time and cost forecasting methods is compared and contrasted by means of a computational experiment on a topologically diverse data set. Throughout these experiments, the forecasting accuracy is reported as well, facilitating a trade-off between accuracy and stability. Finally, it is shown show that the novel stability metric can be used in practical environments using two real-life projects. The conclusions of this empirical validation are found to be largely in line with the computational results.
    Keyword
    Networks, Project Management, Sensitivity, Earned Value Management, Project Duration, Cost and Schedule, Forecasting
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    DOI
    10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000947
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/5082
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000947
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