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    Evaluation of deterministic state-of-the-art forecasting approaches for project duration based on earned value management

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    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    Batselier, Jordy
    Vanhoucke, Mario
    Publication Year
    2015
    Journal
    International Journal of Project Management
    Publication Volume
    33
    Publication Issue
    7
    Publication Begin page
    1588
    Publication End page
    1596
    
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    Abstract
    In recent years, a variety of novel approaches for fulfilling the important management task of accurately forecasting project duration have been proposed, with many of them based on the earned value management (EVM) methodology. However, these state-of-the-art approaches have often not been adequately tested on a large database, nor has their validity been empirically proven. Therefore, we evaluate the accuracy and timeliness of three promising deterministic techniques and their mutual combinations on a real-life project database. More specifically, two techniques respectively integrate rework and activity sensitivity in EVM time forecasting as extensions, while a third innovatively calculates schedule performance from time-based metrics and is appropriately called earned duration management or EDM(t). The results indicate that all three of the considered techniques are relevant. More concretely, the two EVM extensions exhibit accuracy-enhancing power for different applications, while EDM(t) performs very similar to the best EVM methods and shows potential to improve them.
    Keyword
    Project Management, Time Forecasting, Earned Value Management, Earned Duration Management, Rework, Sensitivity Measures, Empirical Database, Project Control
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    DOI
    10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.04.003
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/5206
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.04.003
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