An empirical perspective on activity durations for project management simulation studies
Publication type
Journal article with impact factorPublication Year
2016Journal
Journal of Construction Engineering and ManagementPublication Volume
142Publication Issue
1Publication Begin page
1Publication End page
13
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Show full item recordAbstract
Simulation has played an important role in project-management studies of the last decades, but in order for them to produce practical results, a realistic distribution model for activity durations is indispensable. The construction industry often has needed historical records of project executions, to serve as inputs to the distribution models, but a clearly outlined calibration procedure is not always readily available, nor are their results readily interpretable. This study seeks to illustrate how data from the construction industry can be used to derive realistic input distributions. Therefore, the Parkinson simulation model with a lognormal core is applied to a large empirical dataset from the literature and the results are described. From a discussion of these results, an empirical classification of project executions is presented. Three possible uses are presented for the calibration procedure and the classification in project management simulation studies. These were validated using a case study of a construction company.Keyword
Empirical Equations, Case Studies, Classification, Validation, Construction Companies, Project Management, Construction Industry, Calibration, Simulation ModelsKnowledge Domain/Industry
Operations & Supply Chain Managementae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001022