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    An empirical perspective on activity durations for project management simulation studies

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    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    Colin, Jeroen
    Vanhoucke, Mario
    Publication Year
    2016
    Journal
    Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    Publication Volume
    142
    Publication Issue
    1
    Publication Begin page
    1
    Publication End page
    13
    
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    Abstract
    Simulation has played an important role in project-management studies of the last decades, but in order for them to produce practical results, a realistic distribution model for activity durations is indispensable. The construction industry often has needed historical records of project executions, to serve as inputs to the distribution models, but a clearly outlined calibration procedure is not always readily available, nor are their results readily interpretable. This study seeks to illustrate how data from the construction industry can be used to derive realistic input distributions. Therefore, the Parkinson simulation model with a lognormal core is applied to a large empirical dataset from the literature and the results are described. From a discussion of these results, an empirical classification of project executions is presented. Three possible uses are presented for the calibration procedure and the classification in project management simulation studies. These were validated using a case study of a construction company.
    Keyword
    Empirical Equations, Case Studies, Classification, Validation, Construction Companies, Project Management, Construction Industry, Calibration, Simulation Models
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    DOI
    10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001022
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/5257
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001022
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