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    Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030

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    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    Jiang, Ruth
    Kleer, Robin
    Piller, Frank
    Publication Year
    2017
    Journal
    Technological Forecasting and Social Change
    Publication Volume
    117
    Publication Begin page
    84
    Publication End page
    97
    
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    Abstract
    Additive manufacturing (colloquially: 3D printing) is a highly discussed topic today. Previous research has argued that this technology will have profound effects for manufacturing businesses, but also society as such, demanding new corporate strategies and policies alike. Thus, the development of reliable future scenarios is key for strategic planning and decision making as well as for future research. Still, dedicated academic studies in this field remain scarce. We present the results of an extensive Delphi survey on the future of additive manufacturing with a focus on its economic and societal implications in this paper. Via an initial round of extensive qualitative interviews and a Delphi-based analysis of 3,510 quantitative estimations and 1,172 qualitative comments from 65 experts, we were able to develop two scenarios on the future of AM. Our first scenario is built on those Delphi projections with the highest consensus on the likelihood of occurrence, the second on the expected highest impact on the firm level. We present these scenarios in and conclude with a number of implications for industry, policy, and future research.
    Keyword
    3D Printing, Additive Manufacturing, Forecasting
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    DOI
    10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.006
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/5902
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.006
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