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dc.contributor.authorVan den Broeke, Maud
dc.contributor.authorDe Baets, Shari
dc.contributor.authorVereecke, Ann
dc.contributor.authorBaecke, Philippe
dc.contributor.authorVanderheyden, Karlien
dc.date.accessioned2018-12-10T16:09:25Z
dc.date.available2018-12-10T16:09:25Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.issn0305-0483
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.omega.2018.09.008
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/6052
dc.description.abstractAccurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these adjustments over different time horizons. Collecting data from 8 business cases, retrieving over 307,200 forecast adjustments, this work assesses how the characteristics (e.g., size and direction) and accuracy of consecutive adjustments change over different time horizons. We find that closer to the sales point, the number of adjustments increases and adjustments become larger and more positive; and that adjustments, both close and distant from the sales point, can deteriorate the final forecast accuracy. We discuss how these insights impact operational activities, such as production planning.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.subjectJudgmental forecasting
dc.subjectEmpirical analysis
dc.subjectTime horizon
dc.subjectOperations
dc.titleJudgmental forecast adjustments over different time horizons (Published Online)
dc.identifier.journalOmega: the international Journal of Management Science
vlerick.knowledgedomainOperations & Supply Chain Management
vlerick.knowledgedomainPeople Management & Leadership
vlerick.knowledgedomainMarketing & Sales
vlerick.typearticleArticle in academic journal
vlerick.vlerickdepartmentTOM
vlerick.vlerickdepartmentPO
vlerick.vlerickdepartmentMKT
dc.identifier.vperid121022
dc.identifier.vperid133405
dc.identifier.vperid35922
dc.identifier.vperid151145
dc.identifier.vperid35901


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