Integrating corrective actions in project time forecasting using exponential smoothing

Abstract

Earned value management (EVM) and earned duration management (EDM) are established methodologies to monitor the project performance during execution. These methods serve as a basis to forecast the final project duration and/or project cost. The aim of this paper is to improve the accuracy of project time forecasting by extending exponential smoothing for project time forecasting using EVM and EDM with the integration of corrective actions that are taken during project progress. In order to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of this approach, eight projects conducted in recent years have been followed up in real time. Based on the nature of the observed corrective actions, six distinct categories of corrective actions are identified. The empirical experiment showed that explicitly integrating the occurrence of corrective actions into the forecasting process improves the forecasting accuracy of traditional forecasting methods and forecasting methods using standard exponential smoothing, especially for the middle and late phases of projects. Consequently, by including corrective actions in the forecasting process, project managers can predict the final project duration more accurately.