Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorVerstraete, Gylian
dc.contributor.authorAghezzaf, El-Houssaine
dc.contributor.authorDesmet, Bram
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-12T14:40:07Z
dc.date.available2020-06-12T14:40:07Z
dc.date.issued2020en_US
dc.identifier.issn0360-8352
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.cie.2019.106169
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/6518
dc.description.abstractTactical sales forecasting is fundamental to production, transportation and personnel decisions at all levels of a supply chain. Traditional forecasting methods extrapolate historical sales information to predict future sales. As a result, these methods are not capable of anticipating macroeconomic changes in the business environment that often have a significant impact on the demand. To account for these macroeconomic changes, companies adjust either their statistical forecast manually or rely on an expert forecast. However, both approaches are notoriously biased and expensive. This paper investigates the use of leading macroeconomic indicators in the tactical sales forecasting process. A forecasting framework is established that automatically selects the relevant variables and predicts future sales. Next, the seasonal component is predicted by the seasonal naive method and the long-term trend using a LASSO regression method with macroeconomic indicators, while keeping the size of the indicator’s set as small as possible. Finally, the accuracy of the proposed framework is evaluated by quantifying the impact of each individual component. The carried out analysis has shown that the proposed framework achieves a reduction of 54.5% in mean absolute percentage error when compared to the naive forecasting method. Moreover, compared to the best performing conventional methods, a reduction of 25.6% is achieved in the tactical time window over three different real-life case studies from different geographical areas.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPergamon - Elsevieren_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectSales Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectTactical Sales Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectMacroeconomic Indicatorsen_US
dc.subjectDecompositionen_US
dc.subjectLASSO regressionen_US
dc.subjectSupply Chainen_US
dc.subjectInventory Performanceen_US
dc.subjectLarge Numberen_US
dc.subjectDemanden_US
dc.subjectSelectionen_US
dc.subjectModelen_US
dc.subjectPredictionen_US
dc.subjectCapacityen_US
dc.titleA leading macroeconomic indicators' based framework to automatically generate tactical sales forecastsen_US
dc.identifier.journalComputers and Industrial Engineeringen_US
dc.source.volume139en_US
dc.contributor.departmentGhent Universityen_US
dc.contributor.departmentSolventure, Sluisweg 1 Bus 18, B-9000 Ghent, Belgiumen_US
dc.contributor.departmentFlanders Make, Lommel, Belgiumen_US
dc.identifier.eissn1879-0550
vlerick.knowledgedomainOperations & Supply Chain Managementen_US
vlerick.typearticleJournal article with impact factoren_US
vlerick.vlerickdepartmentTOMen_US
dc.identifier.vperid64585en_US


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Name:
Publisher version

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record