Using real project schedule data to compare earned schedule and earned duration management project time forecasting capabilities

Abstract

Since project control involves taking decisions that affect the future, the ability to accurately forecast the final duration and cost of projects is of major importance. In this paper, we focus on improving the accuracy of project duration forecasting by introducing a forecasting approach for Earned Value Management (EVM) and Earned Duration Management (EDM) that combines the schedule performance and schedule adherence of the project in progress. As the schedule adherence has not yet been defined formally for EDM, we extend the EVM-based measure of schedule adherence, the p-factor, to EDM and refer to this measure as the c-factor. Moreover, we aim to improve the ability to indicate the expected forecasting accuracy for a project by extending the EVM concept of project regularity to EDM. The introduced forecasting approach and the EDM project regularity indicator are applied to a large number of real-life projects, mainly situated in the construction sector. The conducted empirical experiment shows that the project duration forecasting accuracy can be increased by focusing on both the schedule performance and schedule adherence. Further, this study shows that the EDM project regularity indicator is indeed a more reliable indicator of forecasting accuracy.