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dc.contributor.authorWellens, Arnoud, P.
dc.contributor.authorBoute, Robert
dc.contributor.authorUdenio, Maximiliano
dc.date.accessioned2023-02-16T02:23:40Z
dc.date.available2023-02-16T02:23:40Z
dc.date.issued2023en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/7164
dc.description.abstractCan there be side effects of improved forecast accuracy? In this study of the Belgian food retailer Colruyt Group, we show how adding explanatory variables (such as promotions, weather forecasts, national events, etc.) increases forecast accuracy compared to methods using only historical sales data. Furthermore, when using these sales forecasts to determine inventory levels and order decisions in a numerical experiment, we see that these more accurate forecasts require less inventory to maintain a target service level, indicating that more accurate predictions may reduce stockouts and operational costs related to high inventories. These are expected findings. We also found the use of explanatory variables makes the sales forecasts (and consequently the replenishment) more responsive towards changes in customer demand patterns. This creates a higher bullwhip effect regarding the variability of the supermarket’s replenishment orders -- a less desirable outcome of more accurate forecasting using explanatory variables.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherInternational Institute of Forecastersen_US
dc.subjectRetail Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectInventory Simulationen_US
dc.subjectBullwhip Effecten_US
dc.titleIncreased bullwhip in retail: A side effect of improving forecast accuracy with more data?en_US
dc.identifier.journalForesight: The International Journal of Applied Forecastingen_US
dc.source.issue68en_US
dc.source.beginpage25en_US
dc.source.endpage30en_US
dc.contributor.departmentKU Leuven - Faculty of Business and Economics (FEB)en_US
vlerick.knowledgedomainOperations & Supply Chain Managementen_US
vlerick.typearticleJournal articleen_US
vlerick.vlerickdepartmentTOMen_US
dc.relation.urlhttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4320911en_US
dc.identifier.vperid102358en_US


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