• Login
    View Item 
    •   Vlerick Repository Home
    • Research Output
    • Articles
    • View Item
    •   Vlerick Repository Home
    • Research Output
    • Articles
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Browse

    All of Vlerick RepositoryCommunities & CollectionsPublication DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsKnowledge Domain/IndustryThis CollectionPublication DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsKnowledge Domain/Industry

    My Account

    LoginRegister

    Contact & Info

    ContactVlerick Journal ListOpen AccessVlerick Business School

    Statistics

    Display statistics

    Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management

    • CSV
    • RefMan
    • EndNote
    • BibTex
    • RefWorks
    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    Barrientos-Orellana, Alexis
    Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo
    Mora-Melia, Daniel
    Gonzalez-Cruz, Maria Carmen
    Vanhoucke, Mario
    Publication Year
    2022
    Journal
    Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management
    Publication Volume
    29
    Publication Issue
    3
    Publication Begin page
    1449
    Publication End page
    1469
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    Earned Value Management (EVM) is a project monitoring and control technique that enables the forecasting of a project’s duration. Many EVM metrics and project duration forecasting methods have been proposed. However, very few studies have compared their accuracy and stability. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents an exhaustive stability and accuracy analysis of deterministic EVM project duration forecasting methods. Stability is measured via Pearson’s, Spearman’s and Kendall’s correlation coefficients while accuracy is measured by Mean Squared and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors. These parameters are determined at ten percentile intervals to track a given project’s progress across 4,100 artificial project networks with varied topologies. Findings – Findings support that stability and accuracy are inversely correlated for most forecasting methods, and also suggest that both significantly worsen as project networks become increasingly parallel. However, the AT þ PD-ESmin forecasting method stands out as being the most accurate and reliable. Practical implications – Implications of this study will allow construction project managers to resort to the simplest, most accurate and most stable EVM metrics when forecasting project duration. They will also be able to anticipate how the project topology (i.e., the network of activity predecessors) and the stage of project progress can condition their accuracy and stability. Originality/value – Unlike previous research comparing EVM forecasting methods, this one includes all deterministic methods (classical and recent alike) and measures their performance in accordance with project duration.
    Keyword
    Earned Value Management, Construction Projects, Project Duration, Metrics Stability, Time Estimates Accuracy
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    DOI
    10.1108/ECAM-12-2020-1045/full/html
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/7242
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1108/ECAM-12-2020-1045/full/html
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Articles

    entitlement

     
    DSpace software (copyright © 2002 - 2023)  DuraSpace
    Quick Guide | Contact Us
    Open Repository is a service operated by 
    Atmire NV
     

    Export search results

    The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

    By default, clicking on the export buttons will result in a download of the allowed maximum amount of items.

    To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

    After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.