Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management
Publication type
Journal article with impact factorAuthor
Barrientos-Orellana, AlexisBallesteros-Pérez, Pablo
Mora-Melia, Daniel
Gonzalez-Cruz, Maria Carmen
Vanhoucke, Mario
Publication Year
2022Journal
Engineering, Construction and Architectural ManagementPublication Volume
29Publication Issue
3Publication Begin page
1449Publication End page
1469
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Earned Value Management (EVM) is a project monitoring and control technique that enables the forecasting of a project’s duration. Many EVM metrics and project duration forecasting methods have been proposed. However, very few studies have compared their accuracy and stability. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents an exhaustive stability and accuracy analysis of deterministic EVM project duration forecasting methods. Stability is measured via Pearson’s, Spearman’s and Kendall’s correlation coefficients while accuracy is measured by Mean Squared and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors. These parameters are determined at ten percentile intervals to track a given project’s progress across 4,100 artificial project networks with varied topologies. Findings – Findings support that stability and accuracy are inversely correlated for most forecasting methods, and also suggest that both significantly worsen as project networks become increasingly parallel. However, the AT þ PD-ESmin forecasting method stands out as being the most accurate and reliable. Practical implications – Implications of this study will allow construction project managers to resort to the simplest, most accurate and most stable EVM metrics when forecasting project duration. They will also be able to anticipate how the project topology (i.e., the network of activity predecessors) and the stage of project progress can condition their accuracy and stability. Originality/value – Unlike previous research comparing EVM forecasting methods, this one includes all deterministic methods (classical and recent alike) and measures their performance in accordance with project duration.Keyword
Earned Value Management, Construction Projects, Project Duration, Metrics Stability, Time Estimates AccuracyKnowledge Domain/Industry
Operations & Supply Chain Managementae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1108/ECAM-12-2020-1045/full/html