Practical application of reference class forecasting for cost and time estimations: Identifying the properties of similarity
Servranckx, Tom Vanhoucke, Mario Aouam, Tarik
Servranckx, Tom
Vanhoucke, Mario
Aouam, Tarik
Publication Type
Journal article with impact factor
Editor
Supervisor
Publication Year
2021-12
Journal
European Journal of Operational Research
Book
Publication Volume
295
Publication Issue
3
Publication Begin page
1161
Publication End page
1179
Publication Number of pages
Collections
Abstract
Many project managers underestimate that todays projects are subject to various risks, which might lead to enormous cost overruns and project delays. In the domain of project forecasting, Reference Class Forecasting has been introduced as a method to bypass human judgement by applying an uplift that is based on the forecast errors of similar historical projects. In this research study, we aim to identify the possible drivers of project similarity based on interviews with 76 project managers. Also, we evaluate the performance of Reference Class Forecasting as a project forecasting technique from both a cost and time perspective. Based on an empirical study of 52 real projects, the accuracy of Reference Class Forecasting is successfully demonstrated by implementing a method that considers both the intra- and inter-accuracy of reference classes. The accuracy increases when more project properties are considered, however, a higher number of project properties decreases the size of the reference classes and thus reduces the reliability of the results.
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Keywords
Project management, Project forecasting, Reference Class Forecasting, Real Project Data, Project Similarity