This is the first paper to systematically investigate price clustering in new equity assets using a high frequency transactions dataset. We test the hypotheses that past price information and market maker activities are related to price clustering. We report that price clustering in IPOs is substantially greater than the clustering observed for non-IPO assets, which supports the hypothesis that the decision of going public is followed by haziness about the true price. Underpricing is a significant determinant of price clustering for order-book trades, which supports the notion that underpriced IPOs partially reflect price uncertainties. Tick size specifications can be restrictive for individual investors, while giving execution priority to market makers. The characteristics of price clustering for off-book trades differ substantially to price clustering in the order-book.

For the London Stock Exchange, this paper investigates differences in trading costs between market maker (off-book) and order book trades, in the context of clustering in trade sizes and prices. We report several substantial findings. Even after controlling for differences in trade size, the realised spread measure is lower for off-book trades. For the order book, trade size clustering is not associated with differences in transaction costs nor with differences in the information content of trades. For the off-book market, trades in clustered (popular) sizes carry significantly more information than non-clustered trades. Despite the significant differences in the price impact estimates between the order book and off-book, we show that traders placing large orders off-book are still better off than trading via the order book as they benefit from a large discount from the current midpoint price. Additionally, we highlight that price and size clustering tend to occur simultaneously rather than being substitutes in this market setting.

This paper studies the upstairs market of the Stock Exchange Trading System (SETS) of the London Stock Exchange (LSE). We hypothesise that the implicit interaction between the upstairs and the downstairs markets at the LSE alters the pricing mechanism at the upstairs market. We show that market makers employ “cluster undercutting” practices in the upstairs market, which are based on a notional minimum price increment and resemble an anchoring-and-adjustment effect. In particular, we report that liquidity providers consistently buy just below the implicit minimum price increment and consistently sell just above it. This finding is strongly related to stock-price momentum and periods of increased trade intensity. Overall, this effect has only a weak connection to differences in informed trading and is mostly related to the notional price barriers and resistance levels introduced by the minimum tick size of the order book.

In this paper, we present two neural-network-based techniques: an adaptive evolutionary multilayer perceptron (aDEMLP) and an adaptive evolutionary wavelet neural network (aDEWNN). The two models are applied to the task of forecasting and trading the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), the iShares NYSE Composite Index Fund (NYC) and the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). We benchmark their performance against two traditional MLP and WNN architectures, a smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR), a moving average convergence/divergence model (MACD) and a random walk model. We show that the proposed architectures present superior forecasting and trading performance compared to the benchmarks and are free from the limitations of the traditional neural networks such as the data-snooping bias and the time-consuming and biased processes involved in optimizing their parameters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

We exploit an extensive high frequency dataset of all individual equity options trading at NYSE LIFFE (Amsterdam, London and Paris) in order to study the determination of liquidity during the trading day. In particular, we focus on two main aspects of option liquidity: (i) the intraday behaviour of equity option liquidity and its determinants and (ii) the influence of macro-economic events and commonality on intraday equity option liquidity. Inventory management models cannot explain the intraday variation in option spreads and depths. Instead, we show that the option liquidity measures are strongly correlated with option volatility. Increases in volatility are associated with decreases in liquidity, a finding that is in line with information asymmetry models and the derivatives hedging theory. However, the relationship between spreads and volume varies across the three markets. Option liquidity reacts strongly to macroeconomic news announcements, especially US events. The average systematic liquidity component is 12% for Amsterdam, 14% for London and 16% for Paris

This study examines the information content of pricing error, measured by the difference between the implied price computed using the cost of carry model and the spot price of Single Stock Futures (SSFs), traded on National Stock Exchange (NSE), India. The returns of portfolios, based on ranking of such pricing errors, are investigated. The consistency of results is verified by controlling for established risk factors, that is, market, size, value and momentum premium, and idiosyncratic factors such as firm’s liquidity and size. Our study reveals that the pricing error is a priced risk factor that contains incremental information about stock returns of day t, and not beyond. We conclude that implied spot prices from stock futures market are useful for traders to profit in the spot market.

To date, existing studies that use multilayer networks, in their multiplex form, to analyse the structure of financial systems, have (i) considered the structure as a non-interconnected multiplex network, (ii) no mechanism of multichannel contagion has been modelled and empirically evaluated and (iii) no multichannel stabilisation strategies for pre-emptive contagion containment have been designed. This paper formulates an interconnected multiplex structure, and a contagion mechanism among financial institutions due to bilateral exposures arising from institutions’ activity within different interconnected markets that compose the overall financial market. We design minimum-cost stabilisation strategies that act simultaneously on different markets and their interconnections, in order to effectively contain potential contagion progressing through the overall structure. The empirical simulations confirm their capability for containing contagion. The potential for multichannel contagion through the multiplex contributes more to systemic fragility than single-channel contagion, however, multichannel stabilisation also contributes more to systemic resilience than single-channel stabilisation.

This paper decomposes the two effects on a firm's stock and bond returns - the effect of firm's future cash flow and the effect of business risk to study the relationship between the returns of stocks and bonds issued by the same firm. Based on the contingent claims option pricing theory, we employ the firm-level data and an event study methodology, and generate hypotheses regarding the stock-bond return relationship. We show that, by controlling for firm's leverage and firm's future cash flow has a simultaneous positive effect on the firm's stock and bond returns, whereas firm's business risk has a decoupling effect on stock and bond returns. In addition, we provide evidence for the 'flight to quality' hypothesis at a firm-specific level. Our findings complement the literature of stock and bond correlation within a theoretical framework.

This study investigates whether the cross-sectional dispersion of stock returns, which reflects the aggregate level of idiosyncratic risk in the market, represents a priced state variable. We find that stocks with high sensitivities to dispersion offer low expected returns. Furthermore, a zero-cost spread portfolio that is long (short) in stocks with low (high) dispersion betas produces a statistically and economically significant return. Dispersion is associated with a significantly negative risk premium in the cross section (–1.32% per annum) which is distinct from premia commanded by alternative systematic factors. These results are robust to stock characteristics and market conditions.

In this paper, we examine if herding behaviour in the equity market can be explained by option-implied information. Our empirical results confirm the commonly reported absence of herding as a general tendency in the U.S. equity market. However, we find evidence of significant herding behaviour during periods when option-implied information reflects a pessimistic view about the future prospects of the equity market. More specifically, we find that individual stock returns tend to cluster more closely around the market consensus during days of high implied index volatility, more pronounced negative implied skewness, and higher trading volume in index puts.