• Login
    View Item 
    •   Vlerick Repository Home
    • Vlerick Research Output
    • Articles
    • View Item
    •   Vlerick Repository Home
    • Vlerick Research Output
    • Articles
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Browse

    All of Vlerick RepositoryCommunities & CollectionsPublication DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsKnowledge Domain/IndustryThis CollectionPublication DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsKnowledge Domain/Industry

    My Account

    LoginRegister

    Contact & Info

    ContactVlerick Journal ListOpen AccessVlerick Business School

    Statistics

    Display statistics

    Investigating the added value of integrating human judgement into statistical demand forecasting systems

    • CSV
    • RefMan
    • EndNote
    • BibTex
    • RefWorks
    Thumbnail
    Name:
    Publisher version
    View Source
    Access full-text PDFOpen Access
    View Source
    Check access options
    Check access options
    Publication type
    Article in academic journal
    Author
    Baecke, Philippe
    De Baets, Shari
    Vanderheyden, Karlien
    Publication Year
    2017
    Journal
    International Journal of Production Economics
    Publication Volume
    191
    Publication Issue
    September
    Publication Begin page
    85
    Publication End page
    96
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    Whilst the research literature points towards the benefits of a statistical approach, business practice continues in many cases to rely on judgmental approaches for demand forecasting. In today's dynamic environment, it is especially relevant to consider a combination of both approaches. However, the question remains as to how this combination should occur. This study compares two different ways of combining statistical and judgmental forecasting, employing real-life data from an international publishing company that produces weekly forecasts on regular and exceptional products. Two forecasting methodologies that are able to include human judgment are compared. In a 'restrictive judgement' model, expert predictions are incorporated as restrictions on the forecasting model. In an 'integrative judgment' model, this information is taken into account as a predictive variable in the demand forecasting process. The proposed models are compared on error metrics and analysed with regard to the properties of the adjustments (direction, size) and of the forecast itself (volatility, periodicity). The integrative approach has a positive effect on accuracy in all scenarios. However, in those cases where the restrictive approach proved to be beneficial, the integrative approach limited these beneficial effects. The study links with demand planning by using the forecasts as input for an optimization model to determine the ideal number of SKUs per Point of Sale (PoS), making a distinction between SKU forecasts and SKU per PoS forecasts. Importantly, this enables performance to be expressed as a measure of profitability, which proves to be higher for the integrative approach than for the restrictive approach.
    Keyword
    People Management & Leadership, Forecasting
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    People Management & Leadership
    DOI
    10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.05.016
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/5775
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1016/j.ijpe.2017.05.016
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Articles

    entitlement

     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2018  DuraSpace
    Quick Guide | Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Open Repository is a service operated by 
    Atmire NV
     

    Export search results

    The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

    By default, clicking on the export buttons will result in a download of the allowed maximum amount of items.

    To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

    After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.