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dc.contributor.authorBarrientos-Orellana, Alexis
dc.contributor.authorBallesteros-Pérez, Pablo
dc.contributor.authorMora-Melia, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorGonzalez-Cruz, Maria Carmen
dc.contributor.authorVanhoucke, Mario
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-11T12:13:28Z
dc.date.available2023-05-11T12:13:28Z
dc.date.issued2022en_US
dc.identifier.issn0969-9988
dc.identifier.doi10.1108/ECAM-12-2020-1045/full/html
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/7242
dc.description.abstractEarned Value Management (EVM) is a project monitoring and control technique that enables the forecasting of a project’s duration. Many EVM metrics and project duration forecasting methods have been proposed. However, very few studies have compared their accuracy and stability. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents an exhaustive stability and accuracy analysis of deterministic EVM project duration forecasting methods. Stability is measured via Pearson’s, Spearman’s and Kendall’s correlation coefficients while accuracy is measured by Mean Squared and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors. These parameters are determined at ten percentile intervals to track a given project’s progress across 4,100 artificial project networks with varied topologies. Findings – Findings support that stability and accuracy are inversely correlated for most forecasting methods, and also suggest that both significantly worsen as project networks become increasingly parallel. However, the AT þ PD-ESmin forecasting method stands out as being the most accurate and reliable. Practical implications – Implications of this study will allow construction project managers to resort to the simplest, most accurate and most stable EVM metrics when forecasting project duration. They will also be able to anticipate how the project topology (i.e., the network of activity predecessors) and the stage of project progress can condition their accuracy and stability. Originality/value – Unlike previous research comparing EVM forecasting methods, this one includes all deterministic methods (classical and recent alike) and measures their performance in accordance with project duration.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe first author acknowledges the University of Talca for his Doctoral Program Scholarship (RU-056- 2019). The second author acknowledges the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for his Ramon y Cajal contract (RYC-2017-22222) co-funded by the European Social Funden_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherEmerald Group Publishingen_US
dc.subjectEarned Value Managementen_US
dc.subjectConstruction Projectsen_US
dc.subjectProject Durationen_US
dc.subjectMetrics Stabilityen_US
dc.subjectTime Estimates Accuracyen_US
dc.titleStability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value managementen_US
dc.identifier.journalEngineering, Construction and Architectural Managementen_US
dc.source.volume29en_US
dc.source.issue3en_US
dc.source.beginpage1449en_US
dc.source.endpage1469en_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartamento de Ingenierıa y Gestion de la Construccion, Facultad de Ingenierıa, Universidad de Talca, Curico, Chileen_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartamento de Proyectos de Ingenierıa, Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Spainen_US
dc.contributor.departmentFacultad de Ingenierıa, Universidad de Talca, Curico, Chileen_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartamento de Proyectos de Ingenierıa, Universitat Politecnica de Valenciaen_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Business Informatics and Operations Management, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgiumen_US
dc.contributor.departmentUCL School of Management, University College London, London, UKen_US
dc.identifier.eissn1365-232X
vlerick.knowledgedomainOperations & Supply Chain Managementen_US
vlerick.typearticleJournal article with impact factoren_US
vlerick.vlerickdepartmentTOMen_US
dc.identifier.vperid58614en_US


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