Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management
dc.contributor.author | Barrientos-Orellana, Alexis | |
dc.contributor.author | Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo | |
dc.contributor.author | Mora-Melia, Daniel | |
dc.contributor.author | Gonzalez-Cruz, Maria Carmen | |
dc.contributor.author | Vanhoucke, Mario | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-05-11T12:13:28Z | |
dc.date.available | 2023-05-11T12:13:28Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 0969-9988 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1108/ECAM-12-2020-1045/full/html | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/7242 | |
dc.description.abstract | Earned Value Management (EVM) is a project monitoring and control technique that enables the forecasting of a project’s duration. Many EVM metrics and project duration forecasting methods have been proposed. However, very few studies have compared their accuracy and stability. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents an exhaustive stability and accuracy analysis of deterministic EVM project duration forecasting methods. Stability is measured via Pearson’s, Spearman’s and Kendall’s correlation coefficients while accuracy is measured by Mean Squared and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors. These parameters are determined at ten percentile intervals to track a given project’s progress across 4,100 artificial project networks with varied topologies. Findings – Findings support that stability and accuracy are inversely correlated for most forecasting methods, and also suggest that both significantly worsen as project networks become increasingly parallel. However, the AT þ PD-ESmin forecasting method stands out as being the most accurate and reliable. Practical implications – Implications of this study will allow construction project managers to resort to the simplest, most accurate and most stable EVM metrics when forecasting project duration. They will also be able to anticipate how the project topology (i.e., the network of activity predecessors) and the stage of project progress can condition their accuracy and stability. Originality/value – Unlike previous research comparing EVM forecasting methods, this one includes all deterministic methods (classical and recent alike) and measures their performance in accordance with project duration. | en_US |
dc.description.sponsorship | The first author acknowledges the University of Talca for his Doctoral Program Scholarship (RU-056- 2019). The second author acknowledges the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for his Ramon y Cajal contract (RYC-2017-22222) co-funded by the European Social Fund | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | Emerald Group Publishing | en_US |
dc.subject | Earned Value Management | en_US |
dc.subject | Construction Projects | en_US |
dc.subject | Project Duration | en_US |
dc.subject | Metrics Stability | en_US |
dc.subject | Time Estimates Accuracy | en_US |
dc.title | Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management | en_US |
dc.identifier.journal | Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management | en_US |
dc.source.volume | 29 | en_US |
dc.source.issue | 3 | en_US |
dc.source.beginpage | 1449 | en_US |
dc.source.endpage | 1469 | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Departamento de Ingenierıa y Gestion de la Construccion, Facultad de Ingenierıa, Universidad de Talca, Curico, Chile | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Departamento de Proyectos de Ingenierıa, Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Spain | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Facultad de Ingenierıa, Universidad de Talca, Curico, Chile | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Departamento de Proyectos de Ingenierıa, Universitat Politecnica de Valencia | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | Department of Business Informatics and Operations Management, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium | en_US |
dc.contributor.department | UCL School of Management, University College London, London, UK | en_US |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1365-232X | |
vlerick.knowledgedomain | Operations & Supply Chain Management | en_US |
vlerick.typearticle | Journal article with impact factor | en_US |
vlerick.vlerickdepartment | TOM | en_US |
dc.identifier.vperid | 58614 | en_US |