Earned value forecast accuracy and activity criticality
Vanhoucke, Mario Vandevoorde, Stephan
Vanhoucke, Mario
Vandevoorde, Stephan
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Publication Type
Journal article
Editor
Supervisor
Publication Year
2008
Journal
The Measurable News
Book
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Publication Begin page
13
Publication End page
16
Publication NUmber of pages
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Abstract
This paper presents new simulation results on the forecast accuracy of earned value based metrics to predict a project’s final duration. This is the sec ond paper in a series of papers based on the simulation study initially proposed by Vanhoucke and Vandevoorde (2007a). In a previous manuscript published in the Measurable News (Vanhoucke and Vandevoorde, 2007b), it has been shown that the earned schedule method outperforms, on average, the more traditional earned value based meth ods to predict the final duration of a project, both for early and late projects. In the current manuscript, the simulation study is extended to new simulation scenarios that measure the influence of inaccuracies in the planned duration estimates for critical and non-critical activities on the accuracy of forecasting methods