An empirical project forecasting accuracy framework using project regularity
André de Andrade, Paulo Vanhoucke, Mario Martens, Annelies
André de Andrade, Paulo
Vanhoucke, Mario
Martens, Annelies
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Publication Type
Journal article with impact factor
Editor
Supervisor
Publication Year
2024
Journal
Annals of Operations Research
Book
Publication Volume
337
Publication Issue
Publication Begin page
501
Publication End page
521
Publication NUmber of pages
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Abstract
Forecasting an ongoing project’s actual duration is an essential aspect of project management which received considerable attention in the research community. In studies using Earned Value Management forecasting, it has been argued that the network topology is a driver to indicate the accuracy of these forecasts. However, a new project indicator has been recently defined, i.e. the project regularity, which reflects the value accrue according to the plan. It has shown to outperform the serial/parallel network topology indicator in specifying the accuracy of project forecasts. This paper introduces a novel way to define the project regularity, which provides project managers with an improved indication of the expected forecasting accuracy for their projects. The study is carried out on an empirical database consisting of 100 projects from different sectors, and the results are compared to the academic literature. The experiments show that the new indicator provides a better categorisation compared to the existing approaches. Further, they have shown that the ability of project categorisers to indicate the expected forecasting accuracy is affected by industry sector and project size.
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Keywords
Project Management, Project Forecasting, Earned Value Management, Forecasting Accuracy, Empirical Database, Project Regularity, Earned Duration Management