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Restraining overconfident CEOs through credit ratings

Khoo, Shee-Yee
Vu, Huong
Klusak, Patrycja
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2025
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European Financial Management
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Abstract
Overconfident CEOs significantly reduce their acquisition activity when facing a higher risk of a credit rating downgrade, possibly because credit ratings impact their ability to access external financing. Investment-grade firms managed by overconfident CEOs that are placed on a negative rating outlook reduce their acquisitiveness by approximately 16 percentage points. Our findings offer a novel perspective on the role of credit rating agencies as an external control mechanism, constraining overconfident managers from pursuing value-destroying acquisitions. Our findings survive a battery of robustness checks, including endogeneity, controlling for internal control mechanisms and market reaction tests.
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Behavioural Theory of the Firm, CEO Overconfidence, Credit Ratings, Mergers and Acquisitions
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