Practical application and empirical evaluation of reference class forecasting for project management
Batselier, Jordy Vanhoucke, Mario
Batselier, Jordy
Vanhoucke, Mario
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Publication Type
Journal article with impact factor
Editor
Supervisor
Publication Year
2016
Journal
Project Management Journal
Book
Publication Volume
47
Publication Issue
5
Publication Begin page
36
Publication End page
51
Publication NUmber of pages
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Abstract
Traditionally, project managers produce cost and time forecasts by predicting the future course of specific events. In contrast,reference class forecasting (RCF) bypasses human judgment by basing forecasts on the actual outcomes of past projects similar to the project being forecasted. The RCF technique is compared with the most common traditional project forecasting methods, such as those based on Monte Carlo simulation and earned value management (EVM). The conducted evaluation is entirely based on real-life project data and shows that RCF indeed performs best, for both cost and time forecasting, and therefore supports the practical relevance of the technique.
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Keywords
Operations & Supply Chain Management, Skill Development, Methodology, Schedule Management, Cost Control