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    Practical application and empirical evaluation of reference class forecasting for project management

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    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    Batselier, Jordy
    Vanhoucke, Mario
    Publication Year
    2016
    Journal
    Project Management Journal
    Publication Volume
    47
    Publication Issue
    5
    Publication Begin page
    36
    Publication End page
    51
    
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    Abstract
    Traditionally, project managers produce cost and time forecasts by predicting the future course of specific events. In contrast,reference class forecasting (RCF) bypasses human judgment by basing forecasts on the actual outcomes of past projects similar to the project being forecasted. The RCF technique is compared with the most common traditional project forecasting methods, such as those based on Monte Carlo simulation and earned value management (EVM). The conducted evaluation is entirely based on real-life project data and shows that RCF indeed performs best, for both cost and time forecasting, and therefore supports the practical relevance of the technique.
    Keyword
    Operations & Supply Chain Management, Skill Development, Methodology, Schedule Management, Cost Control
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/5710
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