Name:
Publisher version
View Source
Access full-text PDFOpen Access
View Source
Check access options
Check access options
Publication type
Journal article with impact factorPublication Year
2019Journal
Omega: the international Journal of Management SciencePublication Volume
87Publication Issue
SeptemberPublication Begin page
34Publication End page
45
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these adjustments over different time horizons. Collecting data from 8 business cases, retrieving over 307,200 forecast adjustments, this work assesses how the characteristics (e.g., size and direction) and accuracy of consecutive adjustments change over different time horizons. We find that closer to the sales point, the number of adjustments increases and adjustments become larger and more positive; and that adjustments, both close and distant from the sales point, can deteriorate the final forecast accuracy. We discuss how these insights impact operational activities, such as production planning.Knowledge Domain/Industry
Operations & Supply Chain ManagementPeople Management & Leadership
Marketing & Sales
ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1016/j.omega.2018.09.008