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    Judgmental forecast adjustments over different time horizons

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    Publication type
    Vlerick strategic journal article
    Author
    Van den Broeke, Maud
    De Baets, Shari
    Vereecke, Ann
    Baecke, Philippe
    Vanderheyden, Karlien
    Publication Year
    2019
    Journal
    Omega: the international Journal of Management Science
    Publication Volume
    87
    Publication Issue
    September
    Publication Begin page
    34
    Publication End page
    45
    
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    Abstract
    Accurate demand forecasting is the cornerstone of a firm’s operations. The statistical system forecasts are often judgmentally adjusted by forecasters who believe their knowledge can improve the final forecasts. While empirical research on judgmental forecast adjustments has been increasing, an important aspect is under-studied: the impact of these adjustments over different time horizons. Collecting data from 8 business cases, retrieving over 307,200 forecast adjustments, this work assesses how the characteristics (e.g., size and direction) and accuracy of consecutive adjustments change over different time horizons. We find that closer to the sales point, the number of adjustments increases and adjustments become larger and more positive; and that adjustments, both close and distant from the sales point, can deteriorate the final forecast accuracy. We discuss how these insights impact operational activities, such as production planning.
    Keyword
    Judgmental Forecasting, Empirical Analysis, Time Horizon, Operations
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    People Management & Leadership
    Marketing & Sales
    DOI
    10.1016/j.omega.2018.09.008
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/6052
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1016/j.omega.2018.09.008
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