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    Computing project makespan distributions: Markovian PERT networks revisited

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    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    Burgelman, Jeroen
    Vanhoucke, Mario
    Publication Year
    2019
    Journal
    Computers and Operations Research
    Publication Volume
    103
    Publication Issue
    March
    Publication Begin page
    123
    Publication End page
    133
    
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    Abstract
    This paper analyses the project completion time distribution in a Markovian PERT network. Several techniques to obtain exact or numerical expressions for the project completion time distribution are evaluated, with the underlying assumption that the activity durations are exponentially distributed random variables. We show that some of the methods advocated in the project scheduling literature are unable to solve standard datasets from the literature. We propose a framework to analyse the applicability, accuracy and sensitivity of different methods to compute project makespan distributions. An alternative data generation process is proposed to benchmark the different methods and the influence of project dataset parameters on the obtained results is extensively assessed.
    Keyword
    Project Scheduling, PERT Networks, Markov Chains, Linear Algebra
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    DOI
    10.1016/j.cor.2018.10.017
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/6124
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1016/j.cor.2018.10.017
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