2018 M&A Monitor: Shedding light on M&A in Belgium

Abstract

Is the sky really the limit for M&A? Since the first edition of this Belgian M&A Monitor five years ago, we have witnessed a continuous surge in the number of transactions and the multiples being paid. The average EV/EBITDA multiple in Belgian M&A increased from 5.0 in 2013 to 6.7 times EBITDA nowadays. The number one concern highlighted by M&A advisors that filled in our survey, is the current overheating of the market. Nevertheless, two out of three respondents expect M&A activity in Belgium to keep on rising in 2018. It is of course not surprising to observe elevated multiples in a seller’s market that is characterized by economic recovery and easy access to cheap financing. However, the question remains of whether acquisition prices have reached their limits. Part of the answer lies in the interpretation of the multiple which is in fact simply the inverse of the required return by investors. An EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.7 indicates that investors would realise a return of approximately 15% before taking into account any investment expenditures. A further increase in prices would result in returns that no longer outweigh the risks associated with the acquisition. We can only hope that both strategic and financial buyers keep on making this reflection. Despite the critical note in the above paragraph, high multiples could of course be warranted in case of strong growth potential or limited risk in the target’s business. That is why we report for the first time valuation and financing multiples per sector. Industries with relatively lower multiples are “Retail” (5.3x EBITDA), “Transport and logistics” (5.7x) and “Construction” (6.0x). Sectors characterized by superior multiples are “Technology” and “Healthcare” (both 8.2x), “Pharmaceuticals” (9.2x) and “Real Estate” (9.3x). We are convinced that publishing these sector multiples increases the practical usefulness of this Monitor even further in setting price expectations for Belgian M&A. In previous editions, M&A advisors emphasized the Belgian unstable regulatory and tax environment as a restraining factor for M&A activity. In our most recent survey, we explicitly inquired respondents about their expectations concerning the reform package agreed upon by the Belgian federal government and presented in its “summer agreement”. While the vast majority of M&A professionals expect a neutral or slightly positive impact due to especially the decrease in corporate tax rate and the introduction of tax consolidation, some also highlight the interest deduction limitation based upon EBITDA and more stringent conditions for the exemption of capital gains as possible limiting factors. In the remainder of this 2018 M&A Monitor, detailed insights are presented into the evolution of Belgian M&A activity, current typical payment and financing structures and various process characteristics that could be highly relevant for buyers, sellers and all professional parties involved in Belgian M&A.