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    Performance comparison of activity sensitivity metrics in schedule risk analysis

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    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    Ballesteros-Pérez, Pablo
    Cerezo-Narváez, Alberto
    Otero-Mateo, Manuel
    Pastor-Fernández, Andrés
    Vanhoucke, Mario
    Publication Year
    2019
    Journal
    Automation in Construction
    Publication Volume
    106
    Publication Issue
    October
    Publication Begin page
    68
    Publication End page
    78
    
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    Abstract
    In Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA), activity sensitivity metrics measure the importance of activities in a project schedule. Highly sensitive activities are those more likely to increase project duration variability and/or cause project duration extensions. Several activity sensitivity metrics have been proposed over the years, but a comparison of all of them has never been made. This has made it difficult to know which metrics perform better and under what circumstances. In this paper, an extensive comparison of all relevant SRA activity sensitivity metrics is performed using a set of 4100 artificial projects. Unlike previous studies, the comparison framework is decoupled from corrective actions (e.g. activity crashing) which allows the merits of each metric to be assessed individually. Additionally, a new metric that performs better for overall sensitivity ranking is proposed. Results show that most sensitivity metrics do not perform well unless they are applied iteratively (the sensitivity of the remaining scheduled activities has to be recalculated whenever the duration variability of at least one activity has been restricted). However, if applied iteratively, most metrics can enhance project monitoring and control, while significantly shortening project duration.
    Keyword
    Scheduling, Schedule Risk Analysis, Activity Sensitivity, Project Delays, Project Control
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    Operations & Supply Chain Management
    DOI
    10.1016/j.autcon.2019.102906
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/6598
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1016/j.autcon.2019.102906
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