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    Individual differences in the susceptibility to forecasting biases

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    Publication type
    Journal article with impact factor
    Author
    De Baets, Shari
    Vanderheyden, Karlien
    Publication Year
    2021
    Journal
    Applied Cognitive Psychology
    Publication Volume
    35
    Publication Issue
    4
    Publication Begin page
    1106
    Publication End page
    1114
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    We set out to investigate whether interindividual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (a) optimism bias, (b) adding noise to forecasts, (c) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent, and (d) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relationships with cognition (cognitive style, cognitive reflection). Our sample included both novice and expert forecasters. They did not differ significantly in their susceptibility to biases. The lack of individual differences in bias susceptibility suggests that universal approaches to debiasing are possible.
    Keyword
    Biases, Cognitive Styles, Forecasting, Individual Differences, Judgment
    Knowledge Domain/Industry
    People Management & Leadership
    DOI
    10.1002/acp.3831
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12127/6981
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1002/acp.3831
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