Individual differences in the susceptibility to forecasting biases
Publication type
Journal article with impact factorPublication Year
2021Journal
Applied Cognitive PsychologyPublication Volume
35Publication Issue
4Publication Begin page
1106Publication End page
1114
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
We set out to investigate whether interindividual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (a) optimism bias, (b) adding noise to forecasts, (c) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent, and (d) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relationships with cognition (cognitive style, cognitive reflection). Our sample included both novice and expert forecasters. They did not differ significantly in their susceptibility to biases. The lack of individual differences in bias susceptibility suggests that universal approaches to debiasing are possible.Knowledge Domain/Industry
People Management & LeadershipDOI
10.1002/acp.3831ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1002/acp.3831